Earlier this year, DRMetrix released a 14-week study to provide an early look at how the 2025 broadcast year is shaping up for the performance-based television industry. With four additional weeks of data now available, we’ve updated our projections to reflect trends through the first 18 weeks of the 2025 broadcast calendar. These midyear projections offer a more refined outlook and reveal subtle but important shifts across key advertiser categories.
As always, it’s important to note that our projections are based on DRMetrix’s proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Airing Ratio) methodology. This methodology uses year-to-date data to extrapolate full-year performance by advertiser type. For the most accurate results, we exclude data from 2021 and 2022 due to pandemic-related distortions.
The soft upfront market identified in our 10-week and 14-week studies has continued into Q2 of 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly benefiting traditional direct response campaigns. This could be a result of tariff-related uncertainty—some traditional brand advertisers may be pulling back on media commitments due to rising import costs or other supply chain risks, leaving inventory available for performance-based buyers.
Methodology
- We analyzed 18-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
- We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
- For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 18-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 18-week actuals to project full-year airings.
- We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.
Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)
| Advertiser Type | 14-Week Std Dev | 18-Week Std Dev | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Short Form Products | 3.99% | 3.07% | -0.92% |
| Lead Generation | 0.91% | 1.25% | +0.34% |
| Brand/DR | 0.80% | 1.08% | +0.28% |
| Long Form (28.5m) | 0.73% | 0.74% | +0.01% |
Short Form’s decreased standard deviation suggests improved projection stability, while modest increases for Lead Gen and Brand/DR remain within acceptable range.
Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 18 Weeks of Data)
| Advertiser Type | 2025 Projected % YoY Change |
| Brand/DR | +12.78% |
| Lead Generation | +2.21% |
| Short Form Products | +2.65% |
| Long Form (28.5m) | -5.93% |
Key Observations and Market Implications
Short Form Products: Initially expected to show minimal growth, short form is now projected to grow +2.65% YoY. This shift appears to be directly tied to increased scatter availability, with some brand advertisers reducing commitments amid policy and cost concerns.
Lead Generation: Holding steady at +2.21%, Lead Gen reflects resilience in traditional DR categories that benefit from measurable results and scalable call-to-action formats.
Brand/DR: With a projected growth of +12.78%, this category leads all others. The surge likely stems from advertisers doubling down on performance accountability and flexibility in their media buying. Tariff policy and scatter market dynamics may also be incentivizing hybrid branding campaigns that still provide trackable ROI.
Long Form (28.5m): Down -5.93%, this category continues to face structural headwinds. As attention spans shrink and network priorities shift away from long-form blocks, fewer advertisers are committing to this format.
As digital CPMs continue to rise, linear television remains a cost-effective option—particularly for DR advertisers capitalizing on available scatter inventory and efficient reach.
Conclusion
With 18 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation, which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory. Meanwhile, Brand/DR campaigns are experiencing a breakout year, fueled by their ability to blend flexibility, branding, and trackable outcomes.
We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.