This marks the fifth installment in our ongoing DRMetrix industry projection series for 2025, using data from the first 23 broadcast weeks. With each update, we refine our projections by comparing in-year performance across key DTC advertiser categories to historical pacing trends.
📊 Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 23 Weeks of Data)
Advertiser Type
2025 Projected % YoY Change
Brand/DR
+12.68%
Lead Generation
+2.73%
Short Form Products
+3.84%
Long Form (28.5m)
–7.83%
📈 Comparison to 18-Week Study
Advertiser Type
18W Projection
23W Projection
Trend
Brand/DR
+12.78%
+12.68%
≈ Flat
Lead Generation
+2.21%
+2.73%
▲ Modest uptick
Short Form Products
+2.65%
+3.84%
▲ Strengthening
Long Form (28.5m)
–5.93%
–7.83%
▼ Continued decline
🔍 Notable Insights
Brand/DR continues to lead with strong, consistent growth—now tracking nearly 13% ahead of historical norms.
Short Form projections have improved, signaling increased momentum in product-driven direct response.
Lead Gen is slightly ahead of prior expectations, maintaining healthy stability.
Long Form trends have weakened further and are now projected to finish the year nearly 8% below normal.
📉 Trend Stability Improving Over Time
Standard deviations have declined across all categories since our 18-week study, suggesting more stable and reliable trend lines as the year progresses:
Earlier this year, DRMetrix released a 14-week study to provide an early look at how the 2025 broadcast year is shaping up for the performance-based television industry. With four additional weeks of data now available, we’ve updated our projections to reflect trends through the first 18 weeks of the 2025 broadcast calendar. These midyear projections offer a more refined outlook and reveal subtle but important shifts across key advertiser categories.
As always, it’s important to note that our projections are based on DRMetrix’s proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Airing Ratio) methodology. This methodology uses year-to-date data to extrapolate full-year performance by advertiser type. For the most accurate results, we exclude data from 2021 and 2022 due to pandemic-related distortions.
The soft upfront market identified in our 10-week and 14-week studies has continued into Q2 of 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly benefiting traditional direct response campaigns. This could be a result of tariff-related uncertainty—some traditional brand advertisers may be pulling back on media commitments due to rising import costs or other supply chain risks, leaving inventory available for performance-based buyers.
Methodology
We analyzed 18-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 18-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 18-week actuals to project full-year airings.
We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.
Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)
Advertiser Type
14-Week Std Dev
18-Week Std Dev
Change
Short Form Products
3.99%
3.07%
-0.92%
Lead Generation
0.91%
1.25%
+0.34%
Brand/DR
0.80%
1.08%
+0.28%
Long Form (28.5m)
0.73%
0.74%
+0.01%
Short Form’s decreased standard deviation suggests improved projection stability, while modest increases for Lead Gen and Brand/DR remain within acceptable range.
Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 18 Weeks of Data)
Advertiser Type
2025 Projected % YoY Change
Brand/DR
+12.78%
Lead Generation
+2.21%
Short Form Products
+2.65%
Long Form (28.5m)
-5.93%
Key Observations and Market Implications
Short Form Products: Initially expected to show minimal growth, short form is now projected to grow +2.65% YoY. This shift appears to be directly tied to increased scatter availability, with some brand advertisers reducing commitments amid policy and cost concerns.
Lead Generation: Holding steady at +2.21%, Lead Gen reflects resilience in traditional DR categories that benefit from measurable results and scalable call-to-action formats.
Brand/DR: With a projected growth of +12.78%, this category leads all others. The surge likely stems from advertisers doubling down on performance accountability and flexibility in their media buying. Tariff policy and scatter market dynamics may also be incentivizing hybrid branding campaigns that still provide trackable ROI.
Long Form (28.5m): Down -5.93%, this category continues to face structural headwinds. As attention spans shrink and network priorities shift away from long-form blocks, fewer advertisers are committing to this format.
As digital CPMs continue to rise, linear television remains a cost-effective option—particularly for DR advertisers capitalizing on available scatter inventory and efficient reach.
Conclusion
With 18 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation, which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory. Meanwhile, Brand/DR campaigns are experiencing a breakout year, fueled by their ability to blend flexibility, branding, and trackable outcomes.
We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.
Understanding 2025 TV Projections for Advertiser Types — 14-Week Update
Introduction
This study aims to track year-over-year (YoY) performance and project full-year 2025 airings across four key direct response advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). Building upon our prior research based on 4-week and 10-week actuals, this update incorporates 14 weeks of data, offering more reliable full-year projections and further insight into market dynamics.
The soft upfront market we identified in our 10-week study is becoming more evident in 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly in Q1, allowing performance-driven advertisers to expand their presence in linear TV. The data reflects growing stability for most advertiser types, with some notable trend reversals from our earlier studies.
Methodology
We analyzed 14-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 14-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 14-week actuals to project full-year airings.
We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.
While short-form and Brand/DR standard deviations have increased slightly, this reflects the expected variability of Q1-driven performance segments. Overall, stability remains acceptable across categories.
Key Observations and Market Implications
The 14-week dataset offers a clearer view of how early-year market softness is affecting performance-based television advertising:
Short Form Products: Initially projected to decline, short form is now showing modest growth. This shift appears to be a direct result of increased scatter availability as traditional brand advertisers scale back.
Lead Generation: Growth has slowed slightly from the 10-week projection, but remains positive at +1.77% YoY, confirming strong Q1 participation in linear DR media.
Brand/DR: The most consistent category, holding strong at +12.78% projected growth. This segment continues to benefit from hybrid measurement models and expanding use of DPI units.
Long Form (28.5m): This segment continues to experience the most headwinds. Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.
Conclusion With 14 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory.
We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.
SAN DIEGO- (March 17, 2025) – Direct-to-consumer advertisers spent over 21.4 billion on national cable and broadcast networks in 2024 according to DRMetrix, an iSpot company. To celebrate the industry’s accomplishments, the AdSphere™ Awards will honor the direct-to-consumer industry’s top advertisers and brands.
Awards will be presented to the winners at PDMI EAST 2025, where the leaders in Performance-Driven Marketing will come together in Miami Beach, Florida from April 7-9, 2025. The AdSphere™ Awards is the first awards program to be inclusive of the entire direct-to-consumer industry with advertisers such as T-Mobile, Columbia Pictures, Chime, Ro, Wayfair.com, University of Phoenix, Sleep Number, The Farmer’s Dog, Trivago, St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, and many others being honored.
“The AdSphere awards recognize best-of-class advertisers and brands across four industry classifications including brand/direct, lead generation, short-form products, and 28.5-minute infomercials,” said Joseph Gray, founder of the AdSphere Awards and DRMetrix, an iSpot.tv company. “Direct-to-consumer campaigns achieving this level of scale demonstrate consumer popularity and best-in-class creative and media execution. The AdSphere Awards are the most inclusive award program for the entire direct-to-consumer industry recognizing over 60 honorees including all of our best-of-category award recipients.”
AdSphere monitors a universe of 160+ national networks on a 24/7/365 basis. In just over nine years, AdSphere has identified over 17,000 direct-to-consumer brands. In addition to detecting over 900,000 infomercial (28.5 minute) airings, AdSphere has detected over 170 million spots of varying creative lengths up to five minutes in duration. The awards recognize top brands across a wide range of industry categories representing all facets of the industry. AdSphere segments campaigns across over 190 major categories and sub-categories. The complete list of AdSphere Award winners is online at www.drmetrix.com/adsphere-awards.html.
About DRMetrix
DRMetrix, an iSpot.tv company, monitors over 160 national TV networks 24/7/365, tracking direct-to-consumer ads using all creative lengths including spot, 5-min, and long-form which include web addresses, mobile app response, SMS, or toll free numbers. For more information, please visit www.drmetrix.com.
In November 2024, DRMetrix presented the article “Strategic Edge: DTC Advertisers Capitalize on Lesser-Known Linear TV Units” highlighting how top direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands strategically leveraged Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units to achieve significant cost efficiencies. This follow-up expands on those findings, analyzing 2020-2024 trends to uncover fresh insights into how DPI adoption has evolved.
The latest data reveals a significant shift: branded direct-to-consumer (DTC) campaigns with $50K or more in national TV spend have increased their DPI unit purchases year-over-year. In 2024, these advertisers set a new record, acquiring over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units—the highest ever recorded, as shown in the chart below:
DTC DPI Units from 2020 – 2024
What Are DPI Units?
To fully understand the study’s key findings, we must first define DPI units. These are a type of national linear television ad inventory that, unlike traditional national units, can be subject to cover-up in some local markets by multiple video programming distributors (MVPDs) such as Comcast, Charter, and DirecTV.
In markets where MVPDs do not insert a local ad, the network’s DPI unit is shown to consumers. Since DPI units can be discounted by up to 90%, many advertisers are finding them to be a cost-effective alternative to standard national units.
On the left side of the diagram below, a cable network transmits its signal via satellite to multiple MVPDs. Some MVPDs insert local ads during a DPI break, replacing the network’s DPI ad with a local market ad, as shown in the top example. However, in mid-to-small markets, where the MVPD may not sell a local ad, the network’s DPI ad—such as the Expedia ad shown—remains visible to viewers.
This diagram illustrates how DPI units function within the ecosystem of national and local linear TV advertising
For decades, traditional direct-response (DR) advertisers have leveraged DPI units, measuring their effectiveness through DR variations in their commercials. These variations—such as unique phone numbers, promo codes, SMS codes, and dynamic QR codes—allow advertisers to directly track responses tied to specific network DPI units.
Despite the absence of impressions or ratings from traditional measurement providers, DR advertisers have long been able to quantify the value of DPI units through their own performance-driven measurement methods.
More recently, DTC advertisers using branded call-to-actions, like vanity URLs or branded websites, have started recognizing the value of DPI units. To measure their impact, they may rely on probabilistic spike analysis, media mix modeling, and/or deterministic attribution methods.
How and Why Did DRMetrix Conduct This Study?
DRMetrix offers unmatched tracking capabilities for both traditional national and DPI Units. Since the timing of DPI breaks varies by network, DRMetrix employs specialized software that detects DPI tones broadcast ahead of these breaks.
Beyond tracking airings, DRMetrix also categorizes creatives based on their attribution methodology—whether they use DR variations (a traditional DR approach) or branded/vanity call-to-action (commonly used by DTC campaigns).
When it comes to competitive television research, DRMetrix’s ability to pinpoint where traditional DR campaigns allocate spend by network, daypart, and creative unlocks actionable insights. By leveraging decades-proven DR variation methodologies, DR advertisers precisely measure which networks, dayparts, and unit types (including DPI) are producing the best outcomes for their campaigns. DRMetrix shares this actionable intelligence to help advertisers refine their media strategies.
What is Fueling the Growth of DPI Units?
The expansion of DPI usage can be attributed to two primary trends:
Existing Advertisers Increasing Their DPI Investment
Our analysis confirms that the majority of DPI growth—89.57%—is driven by advertisers who had previously used DPI units and have significantly increased their usage in 2024. These advertisers have recognized the strategic value of DPI and are committing more resources to it. Examples include:
Moon Pod: Increased DPI usage from 13% in 2020 to 66% in 2024, with spend rising from $280K in 2020 to $2.1M in 2024.
BestFriends.org: Grew DPI from 5% in 2020 to 54% in 2024, with spend increasing from $482K in 2020 to $5.4M in 2024.
New Advertisers Adopting DPI for the First Time
While the primary driver of DPI growth is increased investment by existing advertisers, 8.97% of the growth can be attributed to brands that previously focused on national placements but have now incorporated DPI into their media strategies. Examples include:
TruGreen: Increased DPI usage from 1.4% in 2020 to 34% in 2024, which helped them lower their spend from $5.8M in 2020 to $2.2M in 2024.
QuickBooks: Expanded DPI usage from 3% in 2020 to 32% in 2024, which helped them lower their media expenditures from $35.3M in 2020 to $20.9M in 2024.
Key Takeaway
While both factors contribute to DPI’s expansion, our data shows that the overwhelming majority of DPI growth is fueled by advertisers who were already using DPI and are now scaling up their investment. However, the rise of new DPI adopters suggests that awareness and adoption continue to grow across the industry, signaling broader acceptance of DPI as a viable media strategy.
High-Spending DTC Campaigns with Strategic DPI Usage
Advertisers such as 4imprint and Grainger lead the way, combining substantial spend with respectable DPI percentages. For instance:
4imprint spent $91.2 million on national units, with 31% being DPI units.
Grainger allocated $83.2 million on national units, with 38% being DPI units.
Mid-Sized DTC Campaigns Leveraging DPI
Brands like BetterHelp and Care.com exemplify how mid-sized advertisers are embracing DPI units:
BetterHelp invested $24.9 million on national units, with 52% being DPI units.
Care.com allocated $12.5 million on national units, with an impressive 58% being DPI units.
High-Spending DR Campaigns with Strategic DPI Usage
In 2024, several high-spending DR advertisers demonstrated a strong strategic focus on DPI units. Here are some notable examples:
LegXercise: With a total spend of $43.6 million, LegXercise allocated 38% of its budget to DPI units, achieving significant cost efficiencies by purchasing 48,762 DPI units..
Nugenix Total-T: This Direct Digital brand invested $38.8 million in 2024, with 42% of its spend directed toward DPI units, leading to 23,906 DPI airings.
Bosley: Specializing in hair restoration, Bosley spent $27.5 million on its campaign, dedicating 37% to DPI units and securing 19,353 DPI airings.
PureWick: A product of Liberator Medical Supply, PureWick spent $26 million on national units in 2024, with an impressive 43% allocated to DPI units, resulting in 20,846 DPI airings.
Instaflex Advanced: Another Direct Digital brand, Instaflex Advanced, allocated 56% of its $25.8 million spend to DPI units, achieving 26,676 DPI airings and reinforcing its strategic approach.
Brands Significantly Increasing DPI Usage and Spend (2020–2024)
Analyzing trends from 2020 to 2024, several brands have dramatically increased their reliance on DPI units while also growing their overall ad spend. These advertisers represent some of the most compelling cases of how brands are leveraging cost-efficient DPI units in their television advertising strategies.
Moon Pod: DPI usage rose from 13% in 2020 to 66% in 2024 (+53 percentage points), while spend increased from $280K in 2020 to $2.1M in 2024.
BestFriends.org: Grew DPI from 5% in 2020 to 54% in 2024 (+49 percentage points), with spend rising from $482K in 2020 to $5.4M in 2024.
HomeServe: Increased DPI usage from 11% in 2020 to 51.9% in 2024 (+40.9 percentage points), while spend grew from $3.6M in 2020 to $11M in 2024.
Mortgage Modification Helpline: DPI percentage grew from 39% in 2020 to 70% in 2024 (+31 percentage points), while spend increased from $751K in 2020 to $1.2M in 2024.
American Diabetes Association: Expanded DPI from 4% in 2020 to 34% in 2024 (+30 percentage points), increasing their spend from $546K in 2020 to $2.4M in 2024.
These brands exemplify a growing trend of advertisers increasing both their DPI investments and overall ad budgets, demonstrating confidence in the effectiveness of these units.
Upcoming Innovations
In 2025, iSpot.tv plans to integrate ACR (automatic content recognition) data along with DPI signal detection software to segment and assign impressions and ratings to DPI units. This innovation will provide DTC advertisers with clearer visibility into the performance of their DPI campaigns.
Conclusion
DPI units remain a powerful yet underutilized tool in the linear TV advertising ecosystem. By analyzing DRMetrix data, we see that advertisers across numerous categories are integrating DPI units into their strategies.
Stay ahead of the curve – connect with DRMetrix today for exclusive insights on how top advertisers are leveraging DPI for maximum ROI.
