Understanding 2025 TV Projections for Advertiser Types

Introduction The purpose of this study is to determine reliable projections for full-year 2025 TV airings across four key advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). The projections were originally based on four-week data collected from the last week of the prior year through January 19, 2025, and historical trends from prior years (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024).

This updated version incorporates six additional weeks of data, extending the study to cover a full 10-week period. This additional data allows for more refined full-year projections and helps identify shifts in market dynamics. One of the most notable findings is that the impact of a weaker upfront market coming into 2025 is now becoming visible, as scatter market units being purchased by performance-based-television-advertisers is up year-over-year by 6.29%. This suggests that there may be more opportunities than initially projected allowing performance-based advertisers to expand their footprint in linear TV.

Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

• Originally calculated the Four-Week to Full-Year Ratios for airings for each advertiser type from 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
• Updated the analysis using 10-week data
• Excluded 2021 and 2022 due to significant deviations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Projections for 2025

• Initial projection applied historical mean airings ratios from four-week data to estimate full-year trends.
• Updated projection applies a 10-weeks of data, allowing for improved year-end estimates.

Stability Assessment

• Analyzed the standard deviation of airings ratios across years to determine projection reliability.
• Originally, ratios demonstrated improved consistency, particularly when excluding COVID-impacted years.
• Now, with 10 weeks of data, standard deviations have increased across all categories

Updated Stability of Historical Airing Ratios

Key Insight: While the original study validated the stability of historical trends, the latest 10-week data shows increased variance in airings across all advertiser types:

The increase in standard deviations suggests greater early-year variability, potentially influenced by increased scatter market availability and changing media buying strategies.

Key Findings

Projected Trends by Advertiser Type

Short Form Products

• Previous Projection: -7.69% decline.
• Updated Projection: -1.82% decline.
• Market Dynamics: Short Form Products have performed better than expected, benefiting from increased scatter inventory and reduced competition from traditional brand advertisers.

Long Form (28.5m)

• Previous Projection: -3.16% decline.
• Updated Projection: -3.94% decline.
• Market Dynamics: Long-form advertising continues to see challenges as audiences shift toward shorter content formats and streaming alternatives.

Lead Generation

• Previous Projection: -1.25% decline.
• Updated Projection: +2.39% growth.
• Market Dynamics: Lead Generation advertisers are increasing their presence in scatter, taking advantage of available inventory and favorable pricing conditions.

Brand/DR

• Previous Projection: +11.79% growth.
• Updated Projection: +12.3% growth.
• Market Dynamics: Brand/DR advertisers continue to expand their footprint, capitalizing on lower scatter pricing and the decline of traditional brand ad spending in linear TV.

Brand/DR Advertisers’ Increased Use of DPI Units A recent study, “How DTC Brands are Leveraging DPI for Growth“, conducted by DRMetrix highlights a significant shift in advertising strategies, with Brand/DR advertisers increasingly utilizing Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units. The latest findings confirm:

• Branded DTC campaigns are escalating their DPI unit purchases year-over-year.
• In 2024, branded DTC advertisers acquired over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units, marking the highest on record.

New Market Factors Influencing These Trends

Recent industry reports suggest that traditional brand advertisers have scaled back upfront commitments heading into 2025, leading to an increase in scatter market availability. In addition, these advertisers may also be buying less scatter inventory than in prior years, further contributing to the increased availability of ad units.

Key industry findings include:

• Upfront TV ad spend has declined from $19.33 billion to $18.64 billion in the 2023/2024 season (Statista).
• TV advertising executives report weaker upfront negotiations, describing the current market as one of the softest in decades (AdAge).
• A shift in spend from linear TV to CTV and streaming is likely relieving pressure on Q1 scatter inventory, making it more accessible to performance-driven advertisers.

Conclusions This updated study highlights several notable changes from the initial four-week projections:

• Short Form Products and Lead Generation are performing better than expected, likely benefiting from increased scatter market inventory.
• Brand/DR continues to show strong growth, reinforcing its position as a key driver of performance-based linear TV advertising.
• Long Form (28.5m) faces ongoing challenges, with projections worsening slightly based on the latest 10-week data.
• The overall increase in scatter market units (+6.29% YoY) suggests that reduced brand advertiser demand is creating new opportunities for performance-based advertisers.

The updated 10-week data provides a more reliable full-year projection for 2025, reinforcing the trends initially identified while adjusting for new market conditions. Further monitoring of Q2 performance and scatter market dynamics will be crucial in determining whether this shift is a short-term reaction or a lasting transformation within the television ad industry.  

Stay tuned for more study updates throughout the year!