Joseph Gray presented these findings live as part of the PDMI’s Fearless Predictions for 2025 webinar which was held on Thursday 1/23/25 at 11AM PST. You can access the Youtube Video by clicking here.
Introduction
The purpose of this study is to make reliable projections for full-year 2025 TV airings across four key advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). The projections are based on four-week data collected from the last week of the prior year through January 19, 2025, and historical trends from prior years (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024). To improve accuracy, data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded due to significant deviations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
This paper outlines the methodology using four weeks of historical data and highlights significant trends observed in the projections.
Methodology
Historical Data Analysis
- Calculated the Four-Week to Full-Year Ratios for airings for each advertiser type from 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
- Averaged the ratios across the selected years for airings to establish baseline metrics.
Projections for 2025
- Utilized four-week airing data (last week of 2024 through January 19, 2025) as the baseline.
- Applied the historical mean airings ratios to project full-year airings, leveraging the relative stability of these metrics across 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
Stability Assessment
- Analyzed the standard deviation of airings ratios across years to determine projection reliability.
- Ratios demonstrated improved consistency, particularly when data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded.
- Minimal deviations in historical ratios further validated the reliability of this projection methodology.
Updated Stability of Historical Airing Ratios
Key Insight: Low standard deviations across most advertiser types validate the stability of historical trends and support the reliability of 2025 projections. Short Form Products remain the most volatile, with the highest variance.
Key Findings
Projected Trends by Advertiser Type
Short Form Products
- Projected Decline: Airings are expected to decrease by 7.69% compared to 2024.
- Market Dynamics:
- Highly rate-sensitive and thrive during periods of soft network inventory demand.
- During COVID, excess inventory availability benefited this category.
- A stronger market in 2025, with increased competition from higher-paying Brand/DR and Lead Generation campaigns, is expected to pressure this category.
- To provide some context, last year for the 4 week period, short form product advertisers cleared 41,579 units. For the same period this year, clearances are down at 36,867 units.
Long Form (28.5m)
- Projected Decline: Airings are forecasted to drop by 3.16% compared to 2024.
- Market Dynamics:
- Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.
- We measured 8,743 clearances last year compared to only 7,977 this year.
Lead Generation
- Projected Decline: Airings are estimated to decrease by 1.25% compared to 2024.
- Market Dynamics:
- Stable overall but facing competition from Brand/DR advertisers, which are claiming a larger share of DR inventory.
- We measured 213,655 units clearing for Lead Generation campaigns last year compared to only 191,569 this year.
Brand/DR
- Projected Growth: Airings are expected to rise by 11.79% compared to 2024.
- Market Dynamics:
- Growth driven by digitally native advertisers flooding into TV in recent years.
- These advertisers are increasingly purchasing DR inventory, crowding out Short Form Products and Lead Generation campaigns.
- We measured 1,547,427 units last year compared to 1,680,466 this year.
Brand/DR Advertisers’ Increased Use of DPI Units
A recent study – How DTC Brands are Leveraging DPI for Growth, conducted by DRMetrix highlights a significant shift in advertising strategies, with Brand/DR advertisers increasingly utilizing Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units. These units have been leveraged by Direct Response (DR) advertisers for decades but in more recent years DPI units are being dominated by branded direct-to-consumer (DTC) campaigns.
Key Findings from the Study:
- Branded DTC campaigns with $50K or more in national TV spend are escalating their DPI unit purchases year-over-year.
- In 2024, branded DTC advertisers acquired over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units, marking the highest on record.
Conclusions
This study highlights the following:
- Short Form Products and Long Form (28.5m) continue to face challenges.
- Lead Generation remains relatively stable despite growing competition.
- Brand/DR demonstrates strong growth, driven by the increasing adoption of DPI units and the continued migration of digitally native advertisers into TV.
The methodology, supported by historical data and trend analysis, provides reliable projections for 2025 and identifies critical dynamics shaping the TV advertising landscape.
