Understanding 2025 TV Projections for Advertiser Types — 14-Week Update
Introduction
This study aims to track year-over-year (YoY) performance and project full-year 2025 airings across four key direct response advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). Building upon our prior research based on 4-week and 10-week actuals, this update incorporates 14 weeks of data, offering more reliable full-year projections and further insight into market dynamics.
The soft upfront market we identified in our 10-week study is becoming more evident in 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly in Q1, allowing performance-driven advertisers to expand their presence in linear TV. The data reflects growing stability for most advertiser types, with some notable trend reversals from our earlier studies.
Methodology
- We analyzed 14-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
- We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
- For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 14-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 14-week actuals to project full-year airings.
- We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.
While short-form and Brand/DR standard deviations have increased slightly, this reflects the expected variability of Q1-driven performance segments. Overall, stability remains acceptable across categories.
Key Observations and Market Implications
The 14-week dataset offers a clearer view of how early-year market softness is affecting performance-based television advertising:
- Short Form Products: Initially projected to decline, short form is now showing modest growth. This shift appears to be a direct result of increased scatter availability as traditional brand advertisers scale back.
- Lead Generation: Growth has slowed slightly from the 10-week projection, but remains positive at +1.77% YoY, confirming strong Q1 participation in linear DR media.
- Brand/DR: The most consistent category, holding strong at +12.78% projected growth. This segment continues to benefit from hybrid measurement models and expanding use of DPI units.
- Long Form (28.5m): This segment continues to experience the most headwinds. Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.
Conclusion With 14 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory.
We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.