This sixth installment in our 2025 projection series reflects actual data through the first 26 broadcast weeks, ending Sunday, July 6, 2025. For those interested in the methodology behind these projections, see our initial 2025 study, which explains how DRMetrix uses historical airings ratios to forecast full-year results.
As always, DRMetrix’s projections are based on our proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Value Ratio) methodology, using actual airings data through week 26. For stability and accuracy, we exclude pandemic-distorted years 2021 and 2022 when calculating historical AVR ratios and standard deviations.
Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 26 Weeks of Data)
| Advertiser Type | 2025 Projected % YoY Change |
| Brand/DR | +11.34% |
| Lead Generation | +3.71% |
| Short Form Products | +6.83% |
| Long Form (28.5m) | −9.47% |
Comparison to 23-Week Study
| Advertiser Type | 23W Projection | 26W Projection | Trend |
| Brand/DR | +12.68% | +11.34% | ▼ Softening |
| Lead Generation | +2.73% | +3.71% | ▲ Strengthening |
| Short Form Products | +3.84% | +6.83% | ▲ Huge Uptick |
| Long Form (28.5m) | −7.83% | −9.47% | ▼ Continued decline |
Trend Summary
- Short Form Products: Huge Uptick
Projected growth surged from +3.84% to +6.83% — a 77% increase in expected YoY gain. Notably, the first week of Q3 (ending July 6) saw a significant surge in media buying. This pattern suggests that advertisers are aggressively returning to the scatter market, possibly due to distressed inventory or favorable media rates. - Lead Generation: Strengthening
Up from +2.73% to +3.71%, Lead Gen posted its biggest gain of the year, suggesting increased buying activity and healthy ROI expectations in the opening week of Q3. - Brand/DR: First Sign of Softness
After months of upward momentum, Brand/DR dipped from +12.68% to +11.34%, signaling the first slowdown in this category’s projected growth. - Long Form: Continued Decline
Dropping from −7.83% to −9.47%, Long Form remains the only category in negative territory, continuing to face challenges in the evolving linear TV environment.
Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)
| Advertiser Type | 23-Week Std Dev | 26-Week Std Dev | Change |
| Short Form Products | 2.07% | 2.00% | −0.07% |
| Lead Generation | 1.96% | 2.17% | +0.21% |
| Brand/DR | 1.38% | 1.47% | +0.09% |
| Long Form (28.5m) | 0.82% | 0.68% | −0.14% |
Short Form’s narrowing standard deviation supports its strengthened reliability. The small increase in Lead Gen and Brand/DR is still within a stable range.
Conclusion
With the first half of the 2025 broadcast year complete, the most significant story is the sharp uptick in Short Form Products, which are accelerating more than any other category. Lead Generation is also trending up, reinforcing its reliability in the performance-based landscape.
Brand/DR, while still strong, has dipped slightly, marking the first projected decline in this category’s growth since tracking began earlier this year. Whether this is a temporary shift or the start of a rebalancing will be worth watching.
Long Form continues to face challenges as media consumption habits evolve and shorter formats dominate available inventory.
DRMetrix will continue monitoring airings data week-by-week and return with another update later this quarter.