drmetrix

DRMetrix – 2025 Projections for Performance Based Television Industry

Joseph Gray , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Joseph Gray presented these findings live as part of the PDMI’s Fearless Predictions for 2025 webinar which was held on Thursday 1/23/25 at 11AM PST.  You can access the Youtube Video by clicking here.

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to make reliable projections for full-year 2025 TV airings across four key advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). The projections are based on four-week data collected from the last week of the prior year through January 19, 2025, and historical trends from prior years (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024). To improve accuracy, data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded due to significant deviations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper outlines the methodology using four weeks of historical data and highlights significant trends observed in the projections.

Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

  1. Calculated the Four-Week to Full-Year Ratios for airings for each advertiser type from 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
  2. Averaged the ratios across the selected years for airings to establish baseline metrics.

Projections for 2025

  • Utilized four-week airing data (last week of 2024 through January 19, 2025) as the baseline.
  • Applied the historical mean airings ratios to project full-year airings, leveraging the relative stability of these metrics across 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024. 

Stability Assessment

  • Analyzed the standard deviation of airings ratios across years to determine projection reliability.
  • Ratios demonstrated improved consistency, particularly when data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded.
  • Minimal deviations in historical ratios further validated the reliability of this projection methodology.

Updated Stability of Historical Airing Ratios

 

 

Key Insight: Low standard deviations across most advertiser types validate the stability of historical trends and support the reliability of 2025 projections. Short Form Products remain the most volatile, with the highest variance.

Key Findings

Projected Trends by Advertiser Type

Short Form Products

  • Projected Decline: Airings are expected to decrease by 7.69% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Highly rate-sensitive and thrive during periods of soft network inventory demand.
    • During COVID, excess inventory availability benefited this category.
    • A stronger market in 2025, with increased competition from higher-paying Brand/DR and Lead Generation campaigns, is expected to pressure this category.  
    • To provide some context, last year for the 4 week period, short form product advertisers cleared 41,579 units. For the same period this year, clearances are down at 36,867 units.

Long Form (28.5m)

  • Projected Decline: Airings are forecasted to drop by 3.16% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.
    • We measured 8,743 clearances last year compared to only 7,977 this year.

Lead Generation

  • Projected Decline: Airings are estimated to decrease by 1.25% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Stable overall but facing competition from Brand/DR advertisers, which are claiming a larger share of DR inventory.
    • We measured 213,655 units clearing for Lead Generation campaigns last year compared to only 191,569 this year.

Brand/DR

  • Projected Growth: Airings are expected to rise by 11.79% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Growth driven by digitally native advertisers flooding into TV in recent years.
    • These advertisers are increasingly purchasing DR inventory, crowding out Short Form Products and Lead Generation campaigns.
    • We measured 1,547,427 units last year compared to 1,680,466 this year.

Brand/DR Advertisers’ Increased Use of DPI Units

A recent study – How DTC Brands are Leveraging DPI for Growth, conducted by DRMetrix highlights a significant shift in advertising strategies, with Brand/DR advertisers increasingly utilizing Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units. These units have been leveraged by Direct Response (DR) advertisers for decades but in more recent years DPI units are being dominated by branded direct-to-consumer (DTC) campaigns.

Key Findings from the Study:

  • Branded DTC campaigns with $50K or more in national TV spend are escalating their DPI unit purchases year-over-year.
  • In 2024, branded DTC advertisers acquired over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units, marking the highest on record.

Conclusions

This study highlights the following:

  • Short Form Products and Long Form (28.5m) continue to face challenges.
  • Lead Generation remains relatively stable despite growing competition.
  • Brand/DR demonstrates strong growth, driven by the increasing adoption of DPI units and the continued migration of digitally native advertisers into TV.

The methodology, supported by historical data and trend analysis, provides reliable projections for 2025 and identifies critical dynamics shaping the TV advertising landscape.

 

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Strategic Edge: DTC Advertisers Capitalize on Lesser-Known Linear TV Units

Joseph Gray , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

When it comes to buying national linear cable TV advertising, traditional national units aren’t the only option. Many leading direct-to-consumer (DTC) television advertisers are turning to a lesser-known option called “DPI” units. These DPI units offer substantial savings, often discounted by as much as 90% compared to regular national unit rates. This discount exists because DPI units are subject to local market cover-up by multiple video programming distributors (MVPDs) such as Comcast, Charter, DirecTV, Dish, YouTube TV, and others.  [For a more detailed explanation, please click here.]

DRMetrix is one of the only competitive television media research providers tracking DPI unit airings across more than 160 national networks. As competitive intelligence becomes increasingly critical, DPI unit tracking is a key component of strategic planning for brands. The chart below highlights 20 of the top DTC television brands that heavily invested in DPI units in 2024. For instance, DRMetrix’s data shows that 31% of 4-imprint’s national linear ad units are DPI units. Care.com leads the pack, with 58% of their total national linear units being DPI units.

It’s important to note that DPI units are not yet rated by any currency provider. However, advertisers are increasingly using a combination of deterministic and probabilistic methods to link DPI unit purchases to measurable business outcomes. This approach has gained significant adoption, with DTC television brands purchasing nearly 3 million DPI units from national cable networks in 2024 alone. Among the nearly 1,300 brands that bought national DPI units in 2024, 568 of them ran campaigns where DPI units accounted for 20% or more of their total ad placements.  For more information, and to discover how many DPI units your competitors are purchasing, please email [email protected]

 

 

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iSpot Acquires DRMetrix To Bolster DTC, Direct Response Offerings and Addressable Advertising Capabilities

Joseph Gray , , , , , , , ,

 

BELLEVUE — Oct. 11th, 2021 — iSpot.tv, the real-time platform for measuring the business and brand impact of cross-platform TV advertising, today announced the acquisition of DRMetrix, a real-time TV ad measurement company specializing in products for direct-to-consumer and direct-response TV advertisers. 

The deal expands iSpot’s measurement of emerging formats for addressable advertising and enhances its ability to track rotating calls-to-actions, including website URLs, SMS and toll-free numbers. This capability — coupled with iSpot’s ability to track distinct creatives at scale and correlate ad exposures to conversion events such as digital actions and in-store traffic — gives brands of all sizes the expanded ability to measure the business impact of complex and dynamic ad buys across platforms. 

“iSpot is constantly investing in the development and acquisition of technologies required to accurately measure the TV advertising of tomorrow,” says Sean Muller, founder and CEO of iSpot. “DRMetrix has developed unique and real-time measurement capabilities around creative versioning and dynamic advertising that will become increasingly important as the TV ad market evolves.” 

DRMetrix’s AdSphere™ developed a measurement system for monitoring all TV ad formats and executions including those delivered via digital program insertion (DPI) ad breaks. The DPI measurement capabilities allow precise identification of ad creatives that are sold by the cable networks as “cover-ups,” which MVPDs inconsistently overlay with their own inventories. 

This inventory, which includes addressable and local advertising, creates a continuous blind spot for networks, agencies and brands. The cover-ups are a favorite means for DTC and DR advertisers to invest in and test television, as they often come at a heavy discount. But both the buy and sell side struggle to accurately quantify the performance and value of this inventory because, until the combination of DRMetrix and iSpot, they could not be measured precisely at scale. 

“We developed a unique system for accurately measuring one of the most dynamic and difficult portions of TV advertising, and we amassed a client base that represents a growing and important part of the TV ecosystem,” says Joseph Gray, founder/CEO of DRMetrix. “In iSpot, we’ve found a home for our innovations to thrive and a vehicle to accelerate our shared goals of making all TV ad measurement more transparent, more actionable and easier.”

The combined capability will also create cost savings for advertisers that traditionally rely on spike analysis, rotating phone numbers and links as the primary means for attribution.

DRMetrix serves 120 brands, networks and agencies, growing iSpot’s customer footprint to more than 450 annual brand subscriptions representing 60%+ of brands in the Ad Age 100 and 95% of TV networks in North America. This is iSpot’s second acquisition of a real-time ad measurement company. It acquired Ace Metrix in January to combine business and brand impact using Ace’s comprehensive qualitative approach to measurement and scoring of creative performance. 

About iSpot

iSpot.tv is the market leader in real-time cross-platform TV ad measurement and attribution. The company’s always-on platform measures the business impact and brand impact of TV advertising and offers fast, accurate and actionable information that empowers brands to justify and optimize TV and video investments.

iSpot persistently measures TV-device impressions and second-by-second attention for all TV ads in a unified manner across linear, time-shifted, VOD and streaming environments. iSpot’s Ace Metrix product measures brand perceptions for TV and video creatives using rapid qualitative panels, and its market-leading attribution solution enables advertisers and TV networks to plan, optimize and transact on business outcomes. 

iSpot delivers its solution in real time via intuitive and modern dashboards as well as APIs and customized analytics. iSpot.tv has hundreds of brands and all major TV networks licensing its enterprise solution and has become a trusted currency for both networks and brands. Founded in Bellevue, Washington in 2013, iSpot has offices in major cities across America.

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