TV Attribution

DRMetrix – 2025 Projections for Performance Based Television Industry (10 Week Study)

Joseph Gray , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Understanding 2025 TV Projections for Advertiser Types

Introduction The purpose of this study is to determine reliable projections for full-year 2025 TV airings across four key advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). The projections were originally based on four-week data collected from the last week of the prior year through January 19, 2025, and historical trends from prior years (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024).

This updated version incorporates six additional weeks of data, extending the study to cover a full 10-week period. This additional data allows for more refined full-year projections and helps identify shifts in market dynamics. One of the most notable findings is that the impact of a weaker upfront market coming into 2025 is now becoming visible, as scatter market units being purchased by performance-based-television-advertisers is up year-over-year by 6.29%. This suggests that there may be more opportunities than initially projected allowing performance-based advertisers to expand their footprint in linear TV.

Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

  • Originally calculated the Four-Week to Full-Year Ratios for airings for each advertiser type from 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
  • Updated the analysis using 10-week data
  • Excluded 2021 and 2022 due to significant deviations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

Projections for 2025

  • Initial projection applied historical mean airings ratios from four-week data to estimate full-year trends.
  • Updated projection applies a 10-weeks of data, allowing for improved year-end estimates.

Stability Assessment

  • Analyzed the standard deviation of airings ratios across years to determine projection reliability.
  • Originally, ratios demonstrated improved consistency, particularly when excluding COVID-impacted years.
  • Now, with 10 weeks of data, standard deviations have increased across all categories

Updated Stability of Historical Airing Ratios

Key Insight: While the original study validated the stability of historical trends, the latest 10-week data shows increased variance in airings across all advertiser types:

The increase in standard deviations suggests greater early-year variability, potentially influenced by increased scatter market availability and changing media buying strategies.

Key Findings

Projected Trends by Advertiser Type

Short Form Products

  • Previous Projection: -7.69% decline.
  • Updated Projection: -1.82% decline.
  • Market Dynamics: Short Form Products have performed better than expected, benefiting from increased scatter inventory and reduced competition from traditional brand advertisers.

Long Form (28.5m)

  • Previous Projection: -3.16% decline.
  • Updated Projection: -3.94% decline.
  • Market Dynamics: Long-form advertising continues to see challenges as audiences shift toward shorter content formats and streaming alternatives.

Lead Generation

  • Previous Projection: -1.25% decline.
  • Updated Projection: +2.39% growth.
  • Market Dynamics: Lead Generation advertisers are increasing their presence in scatter, taking advantage of available inventory and favorable pricing conditions.

Brand/DR

  • Previous Projection: +11.79% growth.
  • Updated Projection: +12.3% growth.
  • Market Dynamics: Brand/DR advertisers continue to expand their footprint, capitalizing on lower scatter pricing and the decline of traditional brand ad spending in linear TV.

Brand/DR Advertisers’ Increased Use of DPI Units A recent study, “How DTC Brands are Leveraging DPI for Growth“, conducted by DRMetrix highlights a significant shift in advertising strategies, with Brand/DR advertisers increasingly utilizing Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units. The latest findings confirm:

  • Branded DTC campaigns are escalating their DPI unit purchases year-over-year.
  • In 2024, branded DTC advertisers acquired over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units, marking the highest on record.

New Market Factors Influencing These Trends

Recent industry reports suggest that traditional brand advertisers have scaled back upfront commitments heading into 2025, leading to an increase in scatter market availability. In addition, these advertisers may also be buying less scatter inventory than in prior years, further contributing to the increased availability of ad units.

Key industry findings include:

  • Upfront TV ad spend has declined from $19.33 billion to $18.64 billion in the 2023/2024 season (Statista).
  • TV advertising executives report weaker upfront negotiations, describing the current market as one of the softest in decades (AdAge).
  • A shift in spend from linear TV to CTV and streaming is likely relieving pressure on Q1 scatter inventory, making it more accessible to performance-driven advertisers.

Conclusions This updated study highlights several notable changes from the initial four-week projections:

  • Short Form Products and Lead Generation are performing better than expected, likely benefiting from increased scatter market inventory.
  • Brand/DR continues to show strong growth, reinforcing its position as a key driver of performance-based linear TV advertising.
  • Long Form (28.5m) faces ongoing challenges, with projections worsening slightly based on the latest 10-week data.
  • The overall increase in scatter market units (+6.29% YoY) suggests that reduced brand advertiser demand is creating new opportunities for performance-based advertisers.

The updated 10-week data provides a more reliable full-year projection for 2025, reinforcing the trends initially identified while adjusting for new market conditions. Further monitoring of Q2 performance and scatter market dynamics will be crucial in determining whether this shift is a short-term reaction or a lasting transformation within the television ad industry.  

Stay tuned for more study updates throughout the year!

 

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DRMetrix – 2025 Projections for Performance Based Television Industry (4 Week Study)

Joseph Gray , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Joseph Gray presented these findings live as part of the PDMI’s Fearless Predictions for 2025 webinar which was held on Thursday 1/23/25 at 11AM PST.  You can access the Youtube Video by clicking here.

Introduction

The purpose of this study is to make reliable projections for full-year 2025 TV airings across four key advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). The projections are based on four-week data collected from the last week of the prior year through January 19, 2025, and historical trends from prior years (2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024). To improve accuracy, data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded due to significant deviations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

This paper outlines the methodology using four weeks of historical data and highlights significant trends observed in the projections.

Methodology

Historical Data Analysis

  1. Calculated the Four-Week to Full-Year Ratios for airings for each advertiser type from 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024.
  2. Averaged the ratios across the selected years for airings to establish baseline metrics.

Projections for 2025

  • Utilized four-week airing data (last week of 2024 through January 19, 2025) as the baseline.
  • Applied the historical mean airings ratios to project full-year airings, leveraging the relative stability of these metrics across 2018, 2019, 2023, and 2024. 

Stability Assessment

  • Analyzed the standard deviation of airings ratios across years to determine projection reliability.
  • Ratios demonstrated improved consistency, particularly when data from 2021 and 2022 were excluded.
  • Minimal deviations in historical ratios further validated the reliability of this projection methodology.

Updated Stability of Historical Airing Ratios

 

 

Key Insight: Low standard deviations across most advertiser types validate the stability of historical trends and support the reliability of 2025 projections. Short Form Products remain the most volatile, with the highest variance.

Key Findings

Projected Trends by Advertiser Type

Short Form Products

  • Projected Decline: Airings are expected to decrease by 7.69% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Highly rate-sensitive and thrive during periods of soft network inventory demand.
    • During COVID, excess inventory availability benefited this category.
    • A stronger market in 2025, with increased competition from higher-paying Brand/DR and Lead Generation campaigns, is expected to pressure this category.  
    • To provide some context, last year for the 4 week period, short form product advertisers cleared 41,579 units. For the same period this year, clearances are down at 36,867 units.

Long Form (28.5m)

  • Projected Decline: Airings are forecasted to drop by 3.16% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.
    • We measured 8,743 clearances last year compared to only 7,977 this year.

Lead Generation

  • Projected Decline: Airings are estimated to decrease by 1.25% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Stable overall but facing competition from Brand/DR advertisers, which are claiming a larger share of DR inventory.
    • We measured 213,655 units clearing for Lead Generation campaigns last year compared to only 191,569 this year.

Brand/DR

  • Projected Growth: Airings are expected to rise by 11.79% compared to 2024.
  • Market Dynamics:
    • Growth driven by digitally native advertisers flooding into TV in recent years.
    • These advertisers are increasingly purchasing DR inventory, crowding out Short Form Products and Lead Generation campaigns.
    • We measured 1,547,427 units last year compared to 1,680,466 this year.

Brand/DR Advertisers’ Increased Use of DPI Units

A recent study – How DTC Brands are Leveraging DPI for Growth, conducted by DRMetrix highlights a significant shift in advertising strategies, with Brand/DR advertisers increasingly utilizing Digital Program Insertion (DPI) units. These units have been leveraged by Direct Response (DR) advertisers for decades but in more recent years DPI units are being dominated by branded direct-to-consumer (DTC) campaigns.

Key Findings from the Study:

  • Branded DTC campaigns with $50K or more in national TV spend are escalating their DPI unit purchases year-over-year.
  • In 2024, branded DTC advertisers acquired over 2.7 million National Linear DPI units, marking the highest on record.

Conclusions

This study highlights the following:

  • Short Form Products and Long Form (28.5m) continue to face challenges.
  • Lead Generation remains relatively stable despite growing competition.
  • Brand/DR demonstrates strong growth, driven by the increasing adoption of DPI units and the continued migration of digitally native advertisers into TV.

The methodology, supported by historical data and trend analysis, provides reliable projections for 2025 and identifies critical dynamics shaping the TV advertising landscape.

 

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