This seventh installment in our 2025 projection series reflects actual data through the first 39 broadcast weeks, ending Sunday, October 5, 2025.

Our projections are based on our proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Value Ratio) methodology, using actual airings data through week 39. For stability and accuracy, we exclude pandemic-distorted years 2021 and 2022 when calculating historical AVR ratios and standard deviations.

Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 39 Weeks of Data)

Comparison to 26-Week Study

Trend Summary

• Lead Generation: Huge Uptick

Projected growth surged from +3.71% to +5.84%. The 2.13 percentage point acceleration makes this category the strongest momentum driver in this reporting period, suggesting increased buying activity and healthy ROI expectations.

• Short Form Products: Sharp Decline

This category experienced the largest projected setback, dropping from +6.83% to +4.38%. This sharp decline completely reverses the “Huge Uptick” noted in the 26-week study, suggesting the aggressive Q3 media buying was either short-lived or adjusted following initial performance results.

• Brand/DR: Softening

After dipping slightly in the prior period, Brand/DR continued to soften, falling from +11.34% to +9.41%. Despite this continued decline in projected growth, it remains the category with the highest overall expected YoY gain.

• Long Form: Continued Decline

The projected decline worsened from -9.47% to -10.82%. Long Form remains the only category in negative territory, reinforcing the challenges it faces in the evolving linear TV environment.

Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)

Brand/DR saw the greatest improvement in stability, with a -0.44% decrease in its Standard Deviation. In contrast, the increased volatility in Short Form Products (Change of +0.88%) correlates with the sharp, negative adjustment in its projected growth.

Conclusion

With the third quarter now complete, the most significant story is the reversal of momentum in the core performance categories.

Lead Generation has emerged as the clear leader in momentum, posting its largest acceleration of the year, while Short Form Products has given back all of the strong gains from the previous period. Whether the aggressive buying by Short Form advertisers resulted in poor performance, or if other market factors are at play, this shift will require close monitoring.

Brand/DR is settling into a strong, but slightly less aggressive, growth trajectory. Long Form faces persistent headwinds as media consumption habits continue to evolve. The diverging trends in volatility and projected growth suggest the market is entering a less stable period, favoring reliability over aggressive volume.

This sixth installment in our 2025 projection series reflects actual data through the first 26 broadcast weeks, ending Sunday, July 6, 2025. For those interested in the methodology behind these projections, see our initial 2025 study, which explains how DRMetrix uses historical airings ratios to forecast full-year results.

As always, DRMetrix’s projections are based on our proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Value Ratio) methodology, using actual airings data through week 26. For stability and accuracy, we exclude pandemic-distorted years 2021 and 2022 when calculating historical AVR ratios and standard deviations.

Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 26 Weeks of Data)

Comparison to 23-Week Study

Trend Summary

• Short Form Products: Huge Uptick
  Projected growth surged from +3.84% to +6.83% — a 77% increase in expected YoY gain. Notably, the first week of Q3 (ending July 6) saw a significant surge in media buying. This pattern suggests that advertisers are aggressively returning to the scatter market, possibly due to distressed inventory or favorable media rates.
• Lead Generation: Strengthening
  Up from +2.73% to +3.71%, Lead Gen posted its biggest gain of the year, suggesting increased buying activity and healthy ROI expectations in the opening week of Q3.
• Brand/DR: First Sign of Softness
  After months of upward momentum, Brand/DR dipped from +12.68% to +11.34%, signaling the first slowdown in this category’s projected growth.
• Long Form: Continued Decline
  Dropping from −7.83% to −9.47%, Long Form remains the only category in negative territory, continuing to face challenges in the evolving linear TV environment.

Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)

Short Form’s narrowing standard deviation supports its strengthened reliability. The small increase in Lead Gen and Brand/DR is still within a stable range.

Conclusion

With the first half of the 2025 broadcast year complete, the most significant story is the sharp uptick in Short Form Products, which are accelerating more than any other category. Lead Generation is also trending up, reinforcing its reliability in the performance-based landscape.

Brand/DR, while still strong, has dipped slightly, marking the first projected decline in this category’s growth since tracking began earlier this year. Whether this is a temporary shift or the start of a rebalancing will be worth watching.

Long Form continues to face challenges as media consumption habits evolve and shorter formats dominate available inventory.

DRMetrix will continue monitoring airings data week-by-week and return with another update later this quarter.

This marks the fifth installment in our ongoing DRMetrix industry projection series for 2025, using data from the first 23 broadcast weeks. With each update, we refine our projections by comparing in-year performance across key DTC advertiser categories to historical pacing trends.

For those unfamiliar with the methodology, refer to our original release:
👉 DRMetrix 2025 Projections – Methodology Overview

📊 Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 23 Weeks of Data)

📈 Comparison to 18-Week Study

🔍 Notable Insights

• Brand/DR continues to lead with strong, consistent growth—now tracking nearly 13% ahead of historical norms.

• Short Form projections have improved, signaling increased momentum in product-driven direct response.

• Lead Gen is slightly ahead of prior expectations, maintaining healthy stability.

• Long Form trends have weakened further and are now projected to finish the year nearly 8% below normal.

📉 Trend Stability Improving Over Time

Standard deviations have declined across all categories since our 18-week study, suggesting more stable and reliable trend lines as the year progresses:

Earlier this year, DRMetrix released a 14-week study to provide an early look at how the 2025 broadcast year is shaping up for the performance-based television industry. With four additional weeks of data now available, we’ve updated our projections to reflect trends through the first 18 weeks of the 2025 broadcast calendar. These midyear projections offer a more refined outlook and reveal subtle but important shifts across key advertiser categories.

As always, it’s important to note that our projections are based on DRMetrix’s proprietary Airing Ratio AVR (Average Airing Ratio) methodology. This methodology uses year-to-date data to extrapolate full-year performance by advertiser type. For the most accurate results, we exclude data from 2021 and 2022 due to pandemic-related distortions.

The soft upfront market identified in our 10-week and 14-week studies has continued into Q2 of 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly benefiting traditional direct response campaigns. This could be a result of tariff-related uncertainty—some traditional brand advertisers may be pulling back on media commitments due to rising import costs or other supply chain risks, leaving inventory available for performance-based buyers.

Methodology

• We analyzed 18-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
• We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
• For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 18-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 18-week actuals to project full-year airings.
• We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.

Stability Assessment (Standard Deviation of Airings Ratios)

Short Form’s decreased standard deviation suggests improved projection stability, while modest increases for Lead Gen and Brand/DR remain within acceptable range.

Updated YoY Projections for 2025 (Based on 18 Weeks of Data)

Key Observations and Market Implications

Short Form Products: Initially expected to show minimal growth, short form is now projected to grow +2.65% YoY. This shift appears to be directly tied to increased scatter availability, with some brand advertisers reducing commitments amid policy and cost concerns.

Lead Generation: Holding steady at +2.21%, Lead Gen reflects resilience in traditional DR categories that benefit from measurable results and scalable call-to-action formats.

Brand/DR: With a projected growth of +12.78%, this category leads all others. The surge likely stems from advertisers doubling down on performance accountability and flexibility in their media buying. Tariff policy and scatter market dynamics may also be incentivizing hybrid branding campaigns that still provide trackable ROI.

Long Form (28.5m): Down -5.93%, this category continues to face structural headwinds. As attention spans shrink and network priorities shift away from long-form blocks, fewer advertisers are committing to this format.

As digital CPMs continue to rise, linear television remains a cost-effective option—particularly for DR advertisers capitalizing on available scatter inventory and efficient reach.

Conclusion

With 18 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation, which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory. Meanwhile, Brand/DR campaigns are experiencing a breakout year, fueled by their ability to blend flexibility, branding, and trackable outcomes.

We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.

Understanding 2025 TV Projections for Advertiser Types — 14-Week Update

Introduction 

This study aims to track year-over-year (YoY) performance and project full-year 2025 airings across four key direct response advertiser types: Short Form Products, Lead Generation, Brand/DR, and Long Form (28.5m). Building upon our prior research based on 4-week and 10-week actuals, this update incorporates 14 weeks of data, offering more reliable full-year projections and further insight into market dynamics.

The soft upfront market we identified in our 10-week study is becoming more evident in 2025. We are seeing a continued increase in scatter market inventory, particularly in Q1, allowing performance-driven advertisers to expand their presence in linear TV. The data reflects growing stability for most advertiser types, with some notable trend reversals from our earlier studies.

Methodology

• We analyzed 14-week and full-year airings data from 2018, 2019, 2020, 2023, and 2024.
• We excluded pandemic-disrupted years 2021 and 2022 from our standard deviation calculations.
• For each advertiser type, we applied the average historical 14-week-to-full-year ratio to 2025’s 14-week actuals to project full-year airings.
• We calculated standard deviations based on these historical years.

While short-form and Brand/DR standard deviations have increased slightly, this reflects the expected variability of Q1-driven performance segments. Overall, stability remains acceptable across categories.

Key Observations and Market Implications

The 14-week dataset offers a clearer view of how early-year market softness is affecting performance-based television advertising:

• Short Form Products: Initially projected to decline, short form is now showing modest growth. This shift appears to be a direct result of increased scatter availability as traditional brand advertisers scale back.
• Lead Generation: Growth has slowed slightly from the 10-week projection, but remains positive at +1.77% YoY, confirming strong Q1 participation in linear DR media.
• Brand/DR: The most consistent category, holding strong at +12.78% projected growth. This segment continues to benefit from hybrid measurement models and expanding use of DPI units.
• Long Form (28.5m): This segment continues to experience the most headwinds.  Increasing consumer preference for streaming and other entertainment options is reducing the time spent watching long-form television content.

Conclusion With 14 weeks of 2025 actuals now in, we are seeing clearer evidence that a soft traditional market is expanding opportunities for DR advertisers, especially in the traditional direct response categories of short-form product and lead generation which are benefiting from improved access to linear inventory.

We will continue monitoring performance in Q2 to determine whether these trends hold or shift as the year progresses.